• JerkyIsSuperior@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    “Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe.”

    Niccolo Machiavelli - The Prince

  • SquishyPandaDev@yiffit.net
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    1 year ago

    Holly shit this has been picked up by the BBC.

    Remember, it doesn’t matter if they succeed or not. The fact it has happened will terrify Putin.

    • Arbiter@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      I feel like this might be on behalf of Putin.

      Wagner has been pretty careful to call out everyone but Putin.

      Feels like setting the stage for a claim that the war was orchestrated by rogue elements in the Russian military, giving an out to tuck tail and run and move toward easing sanctions.

      • sudneo@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Judging from the address to the nation, this doesn’t seem the case now.

        The situation is still very confused.

      • DrElementary@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        This is what I’m worried about. I hope they all tear themselves to pieces, but if Putin gets out scot free, I’ll be disappointed

        • LanternEverywhere@kbin.social
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          1 year ago

          I mean i hear what you’re saying, but if it means less death and destruction for innocent Ukrainians then I’m all for letting Putin live.

      • Ertebolle@kbin.social
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        1 year ago

        Nah, this feels more like an “evil counsellors” situation - you don’t want to take on the king directly, so you instead give him an out by saying that he’s OK but he’s been given bad advice. Which also means if you do take over you can keep him around as a figurehead who now listens to better advisers like yourself.

    • Arbiter@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      I feel like this might be on behalf of Putin.

      Wagner has been pretty careful to call out everyone but Putin.

      Feels like setting the stage for a claim that the war was orchestrated by rogue elements in the Russian military, giving an out to tuck tail and run and move toward easing sanctions.

    • Aux@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      It won’t terrify Putin. It all goes according to the plan. Different forces are fighting between themselves to show who’s more loyal to Putin, those who are not loyal enough are either falling out of windows or being killed on the battlefield. And those who are loyal are getting ludicrously rich. The amount of billionaires in Russia has increased fivefold during the first year of the war.

      Army generals got too corrupt and too complacent since their success in Crimea in 2014, this war is a tool to put them into place and Prigozhin talks a lot so that Putin can put generals’ noses into their shit to teach them a lesson or two while the public fully supports this. Prigozhin gets his piece of the pie in the process.

    • Thepinyaroma@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      How many do they have not in Ukraine… Who are also willing to kill fellow Russians? If the average Russian military sentiment is, “Eh, let them through” this could be huge.

      Plus a lot of the “Royal Guard” may be well-connected rich kids who are even less inclined to fight.

      Way too soon to know for sure, but. 🍿

  • lewis6991@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    This is not a “war”, it is a “special military operation”.

    This is not a “coup”, it is a “march for justice”.

    • sudneo@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Everyone tries to control the narrative, this is completely normal. Anti-terrorist operation, peacekeeping mission, special military operation, march for X. I don’t remember someone who just said “yep, we are invading X”.

      In this case both Prigozhin and Putin (or the establishment) are trying to control the narrative to gather support from “patriots”. Saying you are making a coup sounds antigonizing, while saying you are marching for justice, because it’s the government who has betrayed the people does not.

    • Thepinyaroma@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Launching a nuke would have to be the dumbest thing Putin could do. A huge chunk of NATO must already be salivating at the internal chaos.

      I bet Polish social media is on fire right now.

      • SuddenDownpour@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Any nuke west of the Urals is likely to provoke radiation that reaches NATO, and nukes east of the Urals would be, uh, insignificant most likely.

  • GONADS125@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    I welcome russian infighting. Hope it makes it easier for Ukraine to retake Crimea.

    • Bucket_of_Truth@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      All the Nazi’s who were “expelled” out of Azov/various militias could join up with Wagner and then they all take Ukraine for themselves.

    • Pons_Aelius@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      Mercs are always on their own side first and foremost.

      Purchased loyalty always has an expiry date, usually about 6 hours after the last payment clears.

      They are on the side that pays them or that they see the most profit from.

    • BananaTrifleViolin@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      To be honest I thought Wagner and also the Chechen commanded forces would cause chaos in Russia after the war - Putin unleashed the genies from their bottles in his desperation. Both see themselves as successors to Putin should he fall, and civil war was on the cards but more likely a conflict between Wagner and the Chechen forces of some form. I agree - moving DURING the war with Ukraine - that is totally unexpected!

      But they’ve not switched sides tbf - this seems to be the first steps in a civil war. And it shows just how broken Russia is. The question is, will Wagner step back from the precipice after exacting some sort of price out of the Russian state? Or is this a battle for survival and so unstoppable.

      The really really worrying this is when things get unpredictable like this, there is no telling how things could escalate further. Look at WW1 - the death of Franz Ferdinand helped unleash chaos in a way no one could have forseen.

  • 𝐘Ⓞz҉@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Can someone please explain what’s going on ? I am out of the loop. I know Wagner was fighting for Russia but what happened now?

    • certain_people@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Everyone in Wagner was about to be conscripted into the regular Russian Army as the latest in an ongoing power struggle between Wagner’s boss and the Russian MoD. So to avoid losing his private army, the boss has stepped up the power struggle to an attempted coup, basically.

    • UniquesNotUseful@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      The head of Wagner was unhappy with Russian military leaders and thought he’d take matters into his own hands as Putin was going to support him. Putin did not. Now there are 10,000 men heading to Moscow.

  • assassinatedbyCIA@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    More evidence as to why you don’t hire mercenaries. They are only loyal to the money. I hope the US is watching with their love of PMC’s.

    • 💡dim@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Especially when you then allow that mercenary group to release and recruit 30,000 prisoners

    • Double_A@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Especially if you send the mercenaries on a nonsense mission to die a pointless death…

  • ghostnotes@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    If Kiev has been saving something up for a special occasion, this occasion is starting to look pretty special.

    • elihu@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      I think this is a good time to continue what they’ve been doing, interfering with Russian logistics and pressing forward on the front lines.

      They could make an attack on Russian territory (e.g. drone strikes against airbases, oilfields, bridges, or other suitable targets), but right now might be the right time to hold off on anything that might distract Russia and Wagner from fighting with each other. Nothing unifies squabbling factions quite like a serious external threat.

      I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if Ukraine ops to antagonize Russia as much as they can, while leaving Wagner mostly alone. That would also be a sensible strategy.

  • andrei_chiffa@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Generally, I don’t like to gloat, but I did call that one ~ June 5th over on Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/france/comments/140qkwu/destructions_incursions_évacuations_dans_la/jmyndp3/?context=3; in French because it was on r/France).

    It actually is much worse than it seems - I did a write up over on Mastodon to explain why and how (https://mastodon.social/@andrei_chiffa/110599724720727202). The TLDR is that cities taken by Wagner mercs will be hard to retake without leveling, all internal protection troops are either tied or were lost in Ukraine, and mercs themselves have nothing to loose and all the revenge to take.

    • YuYuHunter@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Tu avais raison.

      It’s very strange how things are going right now. The fact that they are quite effortlessly moving hundreds of kilometers through Russian territory is quite telling.