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Cake day: October 4th, 2023

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  • For its part, Boeing representatives announced they are “reviewing the report, which appears to be based on an inapt comparison of the prices paid for parts that meet aircraft and contract specifications and designs versus basic commercial items that would not be qualified or approved for use on the C-17,” the company said in a statement.

    looks dubiously at dispenser

    In what way is the right-hand soap dispenser not adequately qualified?

    EDIT: It looks like the C-17 can fly pressurized, so I don’t think that it can be undergoing pressure changes, which is the one thing that I could think of.


  • What the hell did Cuba do to deserve this?

    The embargo? Seized a bunch of American-owned property in the revolution. The US said “you can nationalize it, but you gotta pay for it”. The Cuban government said no, and the US said “then we won’t do business with you”.

    Lot of property owned by Americans out there in the world. Makes people think twice about treating it as a free cash grab bag if the last group to try it regretted it.

    Also, as someone else pointed out, it’s an embargo, not a blockade, which would be forcibly preventing them from doing business with anyone else, like, parking warships offshore and not letting anything in or out. A blockade would be an act of war. Embargoes are not.



  • That might indicate that this really is a proportional response, the kind that Iran has already signaled they would not retaliate against.

    Ehh…Iran said that they would respond against attacks on their “territorial sovereignty” or something similar, if I recall, which would be basically any attack against Iran’s territory. I don’t think that they said anything about proportionality. At least not that I saw (and I’d been searching Google News and similar repeatedly for a while).

    That being said, there’s rhetoric and there’s action.

    Back after the Iranian attack, Netanyahu said something about the people of Iran being free from their regime sooner than one might think or something like that, which could certainly be taken as indication of taking out the Iranian leadership, and unless there’s more going on than what’s in the news and Israel has announced, I don’t think that Israel’s trying to topple Iran’s government.

    But, yeah, we’ll see what comes next.


  • So, couple guesses on my part, prior to information coming in:

    • If the attack is over – which I don’t know, but I don’t think that there’d be a reason to have it run over an extended period of time – and if these reports as to explosions are accurate, it is probably far smaller than the Iranian attack to which it was a response. That attack included 200 ballistic missiles. On the other hand, if – and we don’t know this yet, though I’m sure it’ll be in the news shortly – Israel actually hit IRGC headquarters, they probably caused more damage and killed more people than the Iranian strike; the missile fired at Mossad’s headquarters was inaccurate and hit an area by a nearby road, as I recall, and a number of the missiles were intercepted.

    • If Israel is aiming to mirror the Iranian attack in particulars, not just targets, the Iranian attack included two waves. I don’t know why Israel would do that unless it had something to do with intended damage by Iran, but thought it’d be worth a mention, since knowing when the Israeli attack is complete would be interesting information.



  • https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-826117

    Five explosions were reported heard across Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj early on Saturday morning, according to Iranian media, in what is alleged to be the beginning of an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran.

    A second wave of airstrikes was reported following blasts heard in Shiraz later on early Saturday morning.

    I don’t immediately know what the significance of those locations are, and there’s probably more-detailed information coming shortly, but I imagine that that alone is probably enough to give people who have been looking at the matter an idea of what likely targets were.

    EDIT: Oh, wait, missed this bit (or it was added after I initially read the article):

    Israel reportedly attacked the location of the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iran.

    Several of the strikes in Tehran targeted military bases across southern and southwestern Tehran, according to Iranian media.

    Reports of explosions at the Imam Khomeini International Airport in the Iranian capital were also received, however Iranian officials denied anything was wrong.

    EDIT2: Yeah, apparently they’ve been updating the article, whether or not that bit was already there.

    EDIT3: I didn’t look at what-all was known about the intended targets of the Iranian ballistic missile strike a while back, but I do recall that it included Israeli airbases and Mossad’s headquarters. Hitting the IRGC headquarters and Iranian airbases would be analogous, I suppose, so that’d make sense if Israel’s intent is to have an attack that mirrors the targets of the Iranian attack.

    EDIT4: An anonymous Israeli military source was quoted on CNN’s liveblog as saying that no energy targets were attacked, only military.

    EDIT5: Israel’s foreign ministry also announced on Twitter (and probably elsewhere) that they were striking military targets, and I’d take that as more authoritative than whatever anonymous source CNN had.

    EDIT6: Barrons reports that “Iran State TV Says At Least Six Blasts Heard Around Tehran”, so I guess that gives an idea as to scope.

    EDIT7: This has some information as to attack composition:

    https://jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826126

    Over 100 planes were involved in the attack on Iran on Saturday, including the cutting-edge F-35.

    Israel’s preliminary strike on radar targets in Syria was aimed at “blinding” Iran’s capabilities, quickly escalating into an offensive targeting Tehran and Karaj, Iran’s capital and another strategic location.

    The IDF confirmed the operation focused strictly on military targets, steering clear of nuclear and oil facilities to prevent wider conflict escalation. High alert remains as Israel anticipates potential retaliation, not only from Iran.

    This large-scale assault involved over 100 aircraft, including F-35 “Adir” stealth fighters, covering approximately 2,000 kilometers. According to foreign reports, strikes focused on Tehran and Karaj, with the IDF stating that each wave targeted military sites exclusively, mitigating further conflict risks.

    EDIT8: CNN reports that Israel says that the attack is complete.


  • It is also likely to be unwelcome news in China, which has long been North Korea’s main ally but whose influence over the reclusive nuclear-armed state is being eroded by leader Kim Jong Un’s growing relationship with President Vladimir Putin.

    Ehhhh.

    On one hand, yes. North Korea plays Russia against China, and during this war, North Korea can provide things that Russia really wants, so China probably has less direct pull in North Korea than normal.

    But…the flip side of that is that China’s influence over Russia is also probably at an all-time high, in part as a result of this conflict.

    And my guess is that the China-Russia effect is much-more-likely to be a long-lived effect than the Russia-North-Korea effect, due to things like economic and technical ties being established. Just the other day, I read an article talking about how it was expected that North Korea’s relationship with Russia would probably do quite a bit to head back in the direction of normal after the war.

    My expectation is that China can probably afford to play the long game.


  • The birth rate, or the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, has dropped from 1.58 children per woman in 2021 to 1.35 currently.

    In the years from 2011 to 2016, Germany’s fertility rate rose from 1.39 to 1.59 due in part to better overall conditions for families with children as well as the arrival of immigrant families with higher fertility rates.

    So, basically, all the recovery since 2011 has been lost.


  • They already nailed this guy a bit back – I was confused for a sec, thought I recognized his face from previous coverage. The article is just saying that the IDF is confirming that an earlier airstrike that had targeted him did, in fact, kill him.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Dahieh_airstrike

    October 2024 Dahieh airstrike

    On the night of 3 October 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out an airstrike on an underground bunker in Dahieh, a predominantly Shia Muslim suburb in the south of Beirut, Lebanon, where Hezbollah leaders, including Hashem Safieddine, had convened in the headquarters of Hezbollah’s Intelligence Branch.[1][2]

    It sounds like both Lebanon and Israel had suspected that he was dead prior to this point, just weren’t certain:

    Fate of Hashem Safieddine

    According to the Israeli Channel 12, Israeli security officials were “increasingly confident” that Safieddine had been killed in the attack.[3]

    On 5 October, a Lebanese security source reported that Hezbollah lost contact with Safieddine, and that Hezbollah has not heard from him since the airstrike.[9][10]

    Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported that Israel confirmed the assassination of Hashem Safieddine and all Hezbollah leaders that were with him.[11] On 8 October, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that Safieddine was likely “eliminated”. The claim was later repeated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[12][13][14] On 22 October, the IDF formally announced his killing along with Hussein Hazima and other senior Hezbollah members.[15][16]



  • https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21-2024

    Russia appears to be scrambling to reduce tensions with South Korea following credible reports of intensified North Korean cooperation with Russia, including South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence warnings that a contingent of North Korean troops has deployed for training to Russia. South Korea’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s Ambassador to South Korea, Georgy Zinoviev, over reports of the deployment of North Korean military personnel to Russia.[12] The Russian Embassy in South Korea falsely framed the event as a voluntary meeting, as opposed to a diplomatic summons, and notably claimed that any cooperation between Russia and North Korea “is not directed against the security interests” of Seoul.[13] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia-North Korea cooperation “should not cause concern” to other states, and that information about the alleged presence of North Korean troops in Russia may be “contradictory.”[14] The Kremlin’s apparent desire to assure South Korea that its cooperation with North Korea is not a threat to Seoul suggests that the Kremlin remains very concerned about the prospect of Seoul’s potential pivot towards providing Ukraine with necessary military support, and the implications of worsened relations with Seoul for Russian security interests in the Asia Pacific region. Russia has previously attempted to court Seoul in order to mitigate the impacts of its growing reliance on North Korea, as ISW has noted.[15]

    Well, if ISW is correct about the Kremlin aiming to reduce tensions, it doesn’t sound like tensions are being reduced a whole lot.



  • That was my reaction too – North Korea has a history here – but that doesn’t seem to mesh with the article text.

    But sometimes the diplomats and company officials know the money they are sending to Pyongyang is not legitimate, Ryu Hyun-woo, who was once acting ambassador to Kuwait, told RFA.

    “People can buy a counterfeit $100 bill for $20,” he said. “When I was short like $200, I would put in fake bills.”

    He said that internal counterfeiting was discovered internally in 2015 and 2016, when sanctions against North Korea were getting more stringent.

    Though North Korea may have been the origin of high-quality fakes of the $100 bill, Ryu thinks that that’s not the case today.

    “It is questionable whether North Korea can currently secure the appropriate materials to produce counterfeit money,” he said.





  • I’m fairly confident that virtually all the arms being moved are smuggled, not legally exported, so I’m skeptical that an embargo is going to do much.

    https://apnews.com/article/haiti-weapons-gangs-us-trafficking-f06bfb0a7d3b46a1e14ebd7bea95fd71

    Increasingly sophisticated weapons are being trafficked into Haiti mainly from the United States and especially from Florida amid worsening lawlessness in the impoverished Caribbean nation, according to a U.N. report released Friday.

    “Popular handguns selling for $400-$500 at federally licensed firearms outlets or private gun shows in the U.S. can be resold for as much as $10,000 in Haiti,” the report said. “Higher-powered rifles such as AK47s, AR15s and Galils are typically in higher demand from gangs, commanding correspondingly higher prices.”

    That’s a pretty potent incentive to smuggle.

    When you consider that one of the things that Haitian gangs are smuggling is drugs into the US, I figure that the US is probably already exerting a fair bit of effort to tamp down on smuggling.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_drug_trade_in_Haiti

    Throughout the late 1980s and into the 1990s, leading members of the Haitian military, intelligence and police were involved in the illegal drug trade in Haiti, assisting Colombian drug traffickers smuggling drugs into the United States.[3] Corruption in Haiti remains extremely high, and suspicions of continued drug-related corruption remain.

    So you move a load of drugs into the US, take weapons back to Haiti, make a profit in both directions.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/13/americas/haiti-mss-unodc-guns-drugs-intl-latam/index.html

    In a city cut off from the world, guns and drugs keep flowing