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Cake day: July 20th, 2023

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  • I’m not saying normalization is a bad strategy, just that it, like any other processing technique comes with limitations and requires extra attention to avoid incorrect conclusions when interpreting the results.

    Because relative to the population density, there were 100 times as many sightings. Or what am I missing.

    If you were to attempt to trap and tag bigfoots in both areas, would you end up with 100 times as many angry people in a gorilla suit in the small town? No. You would end up with 1 in both areas. So while the tiny town does technically have 100x the density per capita, each region has only one observable suit wearer.

    Assuming the distribution of gorilla suit wearers is uniform, you would expect approximately 99 tiny towns with no big foot sightings for every 1 town with a sighting. So if you were to sample random small towns, because the map says big foots live near small towns, you would actually see fewer hairy beasts than your peer who decided to sample areas with higher population density.

    If we could have fractional observations, then all this would be a lot more straightforward, but the discrete nature of the subject matter makes the data imherently noisy. Interpreting data involving discrete events is a whole art and usually involves a lot of filtering.


  • Simple normalization does amplify signals in low density areas. If a person in a tiny town of 100 reports a bigfoot sighting and another person in an area with 10,000 population also reports a sighting, then with simple normalization the map would show the area with 100 people having 100 times as many big foot sightings per capita as the area with the population of 10k. Someone casually reading the map would erroneously conclude that the tiny town is a bigfoot hotspot and would in general conclude bigfoot clearly prefers rural areas where they can hide in seclusion. When the reality is that the intense signals are artifacts of the sampling/processing methods and both areas have the same number of fursuit wearers.


  • DEMO is not a singular reactor, but rather a class of reactors that are expected to be built using the technologies and lessons learned from ITER. So basically ITER’s main goal is to be a massive international R&D project to pave the the way for individual countries to be able to build their own DEMO plants afterwards. Pathfinding manufacturing technologies for this unique of a system is a big part of why ITER is so expensive. Replicating an ITER like machine should be considerably cheaper.

    Although I personally wouldn’t be suprised if commwealth fusion systems SPARC/ARC leapfrogs ITER/DEMO. Unlike a lot of fusion startups, their approach isn’t particularly novel, which means there shouldn’t be major physics surprises. The higher field intensity afforded by REBCO should mean much smaller and cheaper machines.







  • Other countries should also be looking at adding forest area and wetlands in a strategic fashion to improve freshwater retention. Deforesting clearly changes local climates. So we should be able to do the reverse as well.

    Historical accounts make it sound like the vast majority of land east of the Mississippi in the US used to be old growth forest. Between the chestnut blight and over 200 years of logging, most of the old growth forest is gone.

    India has had some notable successes with a grassroots movement to get rural communities to do small earthworks projects to colllect water during the rainy season and let it seep into the ground. They have demonstrated a notable reduction in crop failures during the dry season resulting from the community action.