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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • There’s no way they realistically hold or capture any of this. They just don’t have the logistics. But it’s an amazing opportunity to create a dilemma for Russia. They either 1) ignore it and let Ukrainian forces rampage around in Russian territory unopposed or 2) they redeploy forces from the front to defend Russian territory.

    The Ukrainian forces should stay nimble either way, and retreat without too big a fight back to their own territory in the latter case, hopefully having caused enough of a diversion for a counteroffensive where they need it.