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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • There’s several benefits:

    1. They draw Russian troops from the front lines in Ukraine to counter the attack.
    2. Russia now has to dedicate manpower and equipment to defending their entire border with Ukraine to avoid another attack like this.
    3. If Ukraine maintains the territory, it’s a huge bargaining chip at the peace negotiating table. Before this, the only way they were going to get their territory back was by taking it back forcefully. Now they can negotiate a trade.
    4. Best case, this is like the Tet offensive and sours support for Putin and the war within Russia, likely because Putin will need another wave of conscription to meet the manpower needs of 1 & 2.